06 Dec Increase In Import Growth Sees Spot Rates Rise
US imports from Asia increased for the fifth consecutive month in July, reaching 1.46 million TEUs – the highest since September 2022. This increase reflects the increased probability that eastbound trans-Pacific trade will return to year-over-year import growth this upcoming peak season.
Although total July imports from Asia were down 10.1% from July 2022, they were up more than 35% from the 2023 low of 1.08 million TEUs recorded in February and March. In addition, the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasted that all US imports in October will only be down 1% from October 2022, with December imports 10.7% higher than the same month a year earlier.
As imports have picked up, so have spot rates, more than doubling from late June. For example: the Asia-West Coast spot rate was $2,150 per FEU (as at 14th August), the highest since October 2022. This increase can be attributed to a multitude of factors such as supply chain disruptions or increased import demand, but the increase is predominantly due to carriers managing capacity via aggressively cancelling or blanking sailings.
According to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, in July, carriers blanked nearly 20% of total capacity to the West and East coasts of North America. That is the highest level of blanking since February through April when import volumes hit their lows for the year thus far.
In addition, carriers across the board have recently announced another round of General Rate Increases (GRIs) and some even suggest that carriers may feel confident enough to announce another GRI in the near future.